What Lies Ahead for Kenya’s Coffee Industry as Global Warming Affects This “Black Gold”?

The pessimism of some farmers about the future of the sector is largely understandable. To face climatic challenges, additional trees are planted to shade the coffee trees.

A $2.5 billion market

According to figures from a 2019 study relayed in 2022 by the African Business media, “60% of wild coffee species are threatened with extinction”. Blame it on global warming, deforestation, disease… problem: the economy of certain African countries is partially based on the marketing of coffee, nicknamed “black gold”.

Africa is in fact the continent where a majority of coffee is produced. It is therefore an essential market, worth $2.5 billion, which is threatened. In the lead, Ethiopia (coffee exports worth $1.2 billion per year) then Uganda ($594.2 million).

Kenyan farmers

In Africa, the area available for growing coffee could decrease by half by 2050 according to some scientists”, explains Michael Hoffman, specialist in climate change at the American University of Cornell, as relayed by Les Echos in 2022. And according to a recent BBC report, no need to wait until 2050 to see the effects of global warming on plantations and the lives of farmers.

The British media went to meet Simon Macharia who grows Kenya AA coffee beans (fruity flavor) in the volcanic lands of Komothai, in central Kenya, “on the hillsides”.

In addition to the workload required to grow berries, farmers are subject to a trade system between Kenya and Europe that they consider unfavorable, and conditions of extreme poverty (the majority of them earn $2.30 per month). day).

Coffee plants extremely sensitive to climate change

In addition, climate change threatens coffee trees, which are sensitive to temperature variations. To grow, they need abundant rainfall. Therefore, when these are irregular, coffee production suffers. So, “coffee production has declined in recent years,” John Murigi, president of the Komothai Coffee Society, told the BBC. (The British media specifies that it represents 8,000 coffee producers).

If coffee plants are weakened by weather conditions, they will be more likely to contract coffee berry disease,”a destructive fungal infection that can wipe out more than 80% of crops” according to the BBC. Herbicides are used to help plants fight disease. These can also harm the health of the premises.

While the water supply in these areas is already limited, it takes an awful lot to produce a cup of coffee and for shrubs to grow. Ever-longer periods of drought are making farmers dependent on river water, the level of which is falling inexorably.

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