The Final Ten Vaquitas Face Imminent Extinction: The Survival of the World’s Rarest Cetacean Hangs by a Thread

She is barely five feet tall, weighs no more than fifty kilos and almost never shows herself. However, the vaquita has been shaking NGOs, biologists and international organizations for more than a decade. This tiny cousin of the dolphin, found only in the northern Gulf of California, is today the most endangered marine species in the world. With less than ten individuals recorded, including a few females accompanied by their young, its survival seems to be hanging by a thread. And this thread, in fact, is a gillnet drifting at the bottom of the water.

In the Gulf of California, the vaquita only survives in an area under high surveillance

Since 2020, a 225 km² portion of the Gulf of California has been officially classified as a “zero tolerance zone”. In this enclave, fishing nets are prohibited and military patrols take turns to deter poachers. Thanks to this device, several aerial survey campaigns have made it possible to observe rare individuals, including females with their offspring. A birth in these conditions is an unexpected sign of hope, which attests to the persistence of reproductive behaviors in an environment that is nevertheless under pressure.

The NGO Sea Shepherd, active in the area, recorded 254 acoustic encounters with vaquitas between May and September 2025. This acoustic monitoring coupled with visual observation made it possible to confirm the presence of at least one or two newborns. One of them was spotted alongside a female already identified in previous years, nicknamed Frida. According to experts, this indicates a reproductive capacity maintained despite a critical population.

But these localized successes should not mask a broader reality. The entire residual population today seems concentrated in a small fragment of its historic area. The rest of the territory remains largely inaccessible to scientists, because it is still frequented by fishing boats, sometimes illegal, which disrupt the installation of underwater sensors.

Outside the zero tolerance zone, the legal vacuum leaves the field open to poaching

Gillnets, responsible for the collapse of the population since the 1990s, remain massively used outside the protected zone. Despite the general ban on these devices in the Gulf since 2017, the authorities are struggling to control their use. Analysis by the IUCN Species Survival Commission reveals that the majority of pangas (small local boats) encountered at sea are still equipped with these nets, including in restricted areas.

An even more worrying observation is emerging in the region. These illegal activities seem to benefit from a form of tolerance, which surprises the teams on site. Several fishermen say they received discreet instructions promising them impunity as long as they remained outside the zero tolerance zone. This situation further weakens the rare vaquitas that venture beyond the protected perimeter, because they then risk falling into the nets. Radar surveillance covers a very small area, and ground controls remain weak. Furthermore, the seized nets represent only a small part of those actually installed in the water.

Another telling sign of this structural flaw concerns the recent seizures of totoaba swim bladders. This fish is very popular in China, where its value reaches peaks on the black market. In 2023, U.S. Customs intercepted more than 360 bladders. Their total value exceeds several million euros. Such a quantity shows massive illegal fishing, supported by well-organized networks.

Without transition from local communities, no species can be saved

Since 1997, experts from the Commission for the Recovery of the Vaquita have been repeating it: without radical change in fishing practices, there is no hope of sustainable survival. However, alternative devices have been developed, tested and validated by researchers. But their adoption remains marginal. In 2023, only 23 permits for alternative nets have been issued to the approximately 370 cooperatives and fishing rights holders in the region. And on the ground, there is no indication that this equipment is actually used.

The study published in npj Ocean Sustainability shows that the current approach fails if economic issues are ignored. The researchers propose a bioeconomic model where the introduction of farmed totoaba would curb poaching by up to 28%. This remains possible only if these products are seen as equivalent to wild fish. However, this effect collapses if cartels flood the market with cheap alternatives to maintain their hold.

The dilemma is therefore clear. Without concrete incentives for communities, and effective protections against illegal networks, the vaquita will not stand a chance. In certain simulations relayed by CNN, researchers estimate that modest financial support, equivalent to a 14% subsidy on livestock production costs, would be enough to tilt the market balance in favor of legality.

One thing remains clear despite everything. The vaquita will not be able to survive on the strength of regulation alone. Fishermen will also have to find something to their advantage. Because this small cetacean, invisible to most, embodies a broader trade-off between biodiversity conservation and local economic survival. And perhaps also, in its quiet way, the last chance to turn the tide in the Gulf of California.