Why is it so difficult to make a decision?
Our brain is not always programmed to make rational choices. We are influenced by many cognitive biases, such as the fear of missing an opportunity or the tendency to overestimate future options. When you are confronted with several choices, it is often difficult to know when to stop and say: “It's the right one.”
It is precisely this type of problem that the 37 % rule tries to solve.
An effective mathematical approach
In the 1960s, mathematicians studied a similar problem, known as the “problem of the secretary”. Imagine that an employer must select the best possible secretary from a certain number of candidates, without being able to return to a rejected choice. How to maximize your chances of choosing the best?
The optimal solution consists in systematically rejecting the first 37 % choice, without retaining any. These first choices only serve to establish a benchmark, a quality standard. Once this step has been taken, it is a question of selecting the first option which is better than all those observed before.
Why 37 %? This figure stems from probabilistic calculations demonstrating that this is the ideal point where one has explored sufficiently without delaying its decision too much.
In detail, this threshold corresponds to 1/e, where “E” is the basis of natural logarithm (approximately 2.718, therefore 1/e ≈ 0.367, or 36.7 %, rounded at 37 %). This report balances at best two opposite risks: choosing too early, at the risk of letting a better opportunity pass, or wait too long and having to be satisfied with a lower choice. By applying this rule, we maximize the probability of selecting the best option available, which reaches approximately 37 %, much more than if we made a chance at random.
This method applies to various fields, from the search for a job to the quest for accommodation, including the selection of a partner, as soon as a sequential decision must be made with a unique acceptance.
How to apply this rule in everyday life?
This method can apply to a multitude of common situations:
1. Find accommodation
If you have 30 days to visit apartments, devote the first 11 days to observation without making a decision. Once this learning period is completed, choose the first good that is better than all those visited before.
2. Recruit a candidate
An employer who must hire among 10 candidates should analyze the first 4 without recruiting them. This phase is used to establish a quality repository. Then he must immediately hire the first candidate who is distinguished from the previous ones.
3. Choose a life partner
If you believe that during your life you will have around 20 serious relationships, then the first 7 or 8 should be considered as a learning phase. Then, engage with the first person who seems to be clearly surpassing the previous ones in terms of compatibility and affinities.
The limits of the 37 % rule
If this method is scientifically optimized, it nevertheless has some limits.
First, it assumes that the options arise randomly, which is not always the case in reality. In the search for a job or a partner, opportunities can be influenced by external factors.
Then, it requires knowing in advance the total number of options available, which is rarely possible. Who can really predict how many apartments he will visit or how many romantic relationships will he live before finding the right one?
Finally, it does not take into account subjective preferences. Finding “the perfect option” is sometimes less important than choosing a solution that makes us happy and satisfied.
Adapt the method for more realistic choices
Rather than seeking absolutely the best option, it is possible to adjust the 37 % rule to increase our chances of success.
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If your goal is to find a satisfactory choice among the most compatible 5 %, just reject only 22 % of the first options before making a choice.
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If you are ready to accept an option among the 15 % best, then you can reject 19 % of the first opportunities to maximize your chances of satisfaction.
This approach allows you to be more flexible and avoid missing a good opportunity by always seeking better.
With an unwavering passion for local news, Christopher leads our editorial team with integrity and dedication. With over 20 years’ experience, he is the backbone of Wouldsayso, ensuring that we stay true to our mission to inform.
