Between the SMPAG (Advisory Group for Spatial Missions Planning) and the International Asteroid Alert Network (IAWN), collective mobilization and citizen scientists would also be welcome.
A disaster film script
Although these observations are only an estimate and it is still possible that the situation is evolving, the Center for Studies of Geocroisian Objects (CNEOS) reports that “the probability of impact has gradually increased in the last month, Until exceeding 1 % on January 27 ”, a threshold which he describes as important. ESA, for its part, speaks of a probability of 1.2 % on January 25, 2024.
This asteroid, whose width is estimated between 40 and 100 meters, is classified 3 on the Turin scale, which makes it possible to determine the severity of an impact between a geocroiser and the earth. The report of the analysis of the asteroid CNEOS confirms that this is a rather rare case, “because this can only happen for an asteroid of more than 20 meters (65 feet) with a probability of 1 impact of 1 % or more ”.
Unreassuring information
Especially since, according to the Neo Study Center of the American Agency, the asteroid will impact the earth at a speed of 17 kilometers per second, or 61,200 km/h. However, the chances that YR4 misses the earth without any impact is still 99 %, and the asteroid is closely monitored.
The organization of the competent bodies
Observable from the ground until April 2025, the calculations concerning its trajectory will continue by then. So many data as possible will notably be collected by the very large telescope of the European Austral Observatory in Chile. The asteroid will not be left. For the moment, the scientists and the various competent bodies are organized, in case.
According to an ESA report, the SMPAG group (Advisory Group for Spatial Missions Planning), notably responsible for “carrying out planning activities for the mitigation of threats of geocroisters linked to the asteroid 2024 YR4” , should meet in Vienna to discuss the coming steps. “” “If the probability of the asteroid impact remains higher than the 1 %threshold, the SMPAG will make recommendations to the UN.»
The International Asteroid Alert Network (IAWN) is also on the spot. If it turns out that an action must be carried out, then a strategy will be established by the network chaired by NASA to plan attenuation measures before the impact with governments around the world.
The role of amateur astronomers in asteroid tracking
But in the midst of all these networks, the public can also participate, on its scale, in this close surveillance, thanks to the network of unistellarted connected telescopes developed by Franck Marchis, astronomer in a Californian institute and founder of Skymapper.
The goal is therefore to identify stellar occultations, produced by the stars when an asteroid passes right in front. This true mobilization would make it possible to further specify the trajectory of the asteroid. It remains to be positioned precisely these telescopes.
With an unwavering passion for local news, Christopher leads our editorial team with integrity and dedication. With over 20 years’ experience, he is the backbone of Wouldsayso, ensuring that we stay true to our mission to inform.
