Could Climate Change Cause a Beer Shortage Tomorrow?

Beer lovers will not have failed to notice the profound change that the brewing sector has been undergoing in recent years. This is mainly manifested by what has been called the “craft beer revolution”, in other words the proliferation of craft microbreweries.

This has led to a diversification of beer styles, produced both by these new microbreweries and by multinational groups inspired by them, to the delight of palates looking for new flavors. However, one element could disrupt this evolution: climate change.

A study that we conducted in 2020 in Alsace highlights various consequences that climate change can have on the brewing sector.

Depending on the level of the sector concerned, three types of effects can be distinguished:

• agricultural impacts on the supply of raw materials,
• industrial impacts dedicated to brewing processes
• and indirect impacts resulting from changing consumer expectations.

[Article issu de The Conversation, écrit par Gaël Bohnert, Doctorant en géographie et ingénieur en systèmes agricoles et agroalimentaires durables au sud, Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA)]

Malt and hops under threat

According to my interviews, the strongest effects of climate change are to be feared upstream of the sector:

“The biggest risks for beer are in agriculture,” one brewer assured me.

These risks concern both the quantity and quality of the supply of malt (produced mainly from barley) and hops, the main raw materials that make up beer after water.

Particularly the periods of drought are of concern. Barley and hop yields could be significantly reduced by a drop in summer rainfall, which is precisely what climate projections in the region predict.

On the qualitative side, it is more the hops that concentrate the concerns. While it is used largely to give its bitterness to beer, the high temperatures, expected to be more and more common, lead to a drop in the concentration of alpha acids, molecules responsible for this bitterness.

To protect themselves from a supply deficient in quantity or quality, some brewers are considering – or even already testing – several measures. A first response is to change suppliers, in order to bring in raw materials from less affected regions, such as the United Kingdom. A strategy that will not be enough in the long term, if brewers around the world turn to their British neighbor for supplies.

The other avenue discussed is to optimize production processes, or even modify recipes, in order to limit the quantity of raw materials needed. This would result in beers that are less strong – which means less sugar provided by the malt for fermentation means less alcohol produced – or less hoppy. One brewer even goes so far as to experiment with beers without hops, which he replaces with yarrow or ground ivy for flavoring.

Industrial impacts

Although the consequences of climate change on beer production itself seem less pronounced than on the agricultural upstream, they are not negligible.

Water, the primary ingredient in beer since it makes up 90 to 95% of the mass of ingredients, is the main problem in this area. An efficient brewery will consume between 4 and 7 liters of water to produce 1 liter of beer: faced with the intensification of droughts, many brewers fear being subjected to water restrictions that would force them to stop or reduce their activity during the summer. Saving measures are then undertaken, the most widespread being to recover cooling water.

Another difficulty can arise from high temperatures: the fermentation tanks must be kept at a relatively constant and cool temperature (4-13°C for bottom fermentation and 16-24°C for top fermentation).

On this point, the popularity of top-fermented beers in the world of craft brewing (beers often stronger in alcohol and taste, IPA for example) could make the latter less vulnerable to high temperatures than the large, more industrialized breweries, which have based their growth on the development of bottom-fermented beers, which require more energy in high temperatures: this is the case of lagers, beers which are generally less strong and are mainly aimed at refreshment:

“Cooling is an issue, because in terms of electricity consumption, it accounts for about a third of electricity consumption,” notes a brewer.

While none of the brewers we met had encountered this extreme case during our discussions, excessively high temperatures can also go so far as to make sufficient cooling impossible. The choice can then be made to pause production during the warmer months, but it is mainly structural measures that are put forward to reduce cooling requirements and therefore energy consumption (insulation in particular).

A strategy could also be to secure access to clean and inexpensive electricity because it is self-produced, by installing photovoltaic panels on the roof of the brewery for example.

More demanding consumers

Finally, beyond these direct impacts, climate change generates other indirect effects on the brewing sector. It is a question of adapting to the changes that these disruptions bring about at the level of consumption.

While beer is generally considered a refreshing drink, the alcohol it contains is not sought after during heatwaves and bars are less crowded. This behavior is also consistent with public recommendations. According to some brewers interviewed, the development of alcohol-free beers is thus explicitly aimed at adapting to this change in demand during high heatwaves.

Above all, the media coverage of climate change has given rise to new expectations of sustainability, opportunities to expand into new markets (short supply chains, organic farming, deposits for reusing bottles) and to stand out from competitors by communicating about its actions in favor of the environment.

Climate change is complicating the already very rapid changes that the brewing sector has been experiencing since the end of the 19th century. Some of its consequences may indeed accentuate these changes, while others will oppose them – highly alcoholic and hoppy beers such as IPAs are questioned by the issues of supply and alcohol content, but at the same time require less cooling, and therefore less energy.

In short, the need for adaptation to climate change seems above all to reinforce the diversification of strategies and types of beers, both by craft and industrial breweries, contributing to enriching the brewing landscape.