COP30: Three Urgent Actions to Significantly Cut Warming by 2035 – It’s Time for Governments to Turn Promises into Tangible Steps

The threshold of +1.5°C of warming has already been exceeded for two consecutive years, leading to increasingly serious environmental and social impacts. The consequences are intensifying: extreme events, melting ice, loss of biodiversity, agricultural disruptions. With COP30 currently taking place in Belém, Brazil, discussions are taking a decisive turn.

Because beyond the findings, three major commitments already made could change the global climate trajectory if they are applied quickly: tripling renewable energy capacities, doubling the rate of gains in energy efficiency, and drastically reducing methane emissions. These measures, all validated at COP28, would represent a decisive turning point in the fight against climate change. The international community is therefore putting its credibility to the test: the time is no longer for promises, but for concrete execution.

Tripling renewables: a dynamic underway, but still fragile

One of the structuring commitments adopted at COP28 is the promise to triple global renewable energy production capacity by 2030. This target aims to support the transition to a decarbonized energy system. According to the
Climate Action Trackerthis measure could represent 40% of the emissions reductions needed in G20 countries. Indeed, they alone produce around 80% of global emissions.

Concretely, this involves massively increasing the installation of solar, wind, hydraulic and geothermal energy sources. And while strengthening electrical networks so that they can accommodate these intermittent energies. Progress is notable. India has already achieved some goals five years ahead of schedule. Additionally, China now dominates investments in solar and wind. By 2024, global financing for renewable energy will exceed $2 trillion. More than double those allocated to fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), cited by The Guardian.

But the dynamic remains uneven. Many countries lack funding, infrastructure or political will. The potential remains, but the barriers arise in multiple ways: administrative burden, local resistance, intermittent production without sufficient storage. And above all the inertia of energy models based on coal or gas.

Niklas Höhne, from the NewClimate Institute, emphasizes that this energy transformation “ would mechanically trigger a reduction in the use of fossil fuels “. It is still necessary that commitments be followed by rapid actions. With COP30 in full swing in Belém, the challenge now is to deliver on promises. In particular by providing technical and financial support to the countries most vulnerable to the energy and climate crisis.

Doubling energy efficiency: a discreet but decisive lever for warming

Improving energy efficiency means producing more with less energy. This lever, often relegated to the background, could nevertheless contribute as much as renewables to reducing emissions in the G20 countries. The commitment made at COP28 is to double the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030, currently estimated at around 2% per year.

This improvement is based on several concrete axes: renovation of buildings, electrification of industrial uses, better performance of household appliances, or even optimization of transport. For example, modernizing district heating networks, thermal insulation of homes or switching to electric vehicles powered by clean energy are all effective and accessible measures.

According to the Climate Action Trackeralmost 40% of the G20's emissions reductions by 2035 could be obtained through energy efficiency. This energy gain would be largely linked to the electrification of key sectors: transport, industry and buildings, particularly in industrialized countries.

But the obstacles remain numerous. Upfront financing for renovations or high-performance technologies remains out of reach for a large part of the world's population. Coordination between governments, local authorities and private actors is also essential, but still too rare.

Bill Hare, director of Climate Analyticsrecalls that “ tripling renewables without doubling efficiency would be ineffective. Because clean energy would quickly be absorbed by uncontrolled growing demand “. Doubling energy efficiency therefore means ensuring that efforts on renewables are not canceled out by ever-increasing energy consumption. This is an essential condition for stabilizing global energy demand. All this while reducing pressure on natural resources and electricity networks.

Methane: a forgotten gas with major climate potential

Long underestimated in climate policies, methane is today recognized as a crucial lever in the fight against global warming. This gas, with a shorter lifetime in the atmosphere than CO₂ (around 12 years), has a global warming power around 80 times higher over a period of 20 years.

It is responsible for around 30% of the rise in temperatures recorded since the pre-industrial era. According to
The Guardianmethane reduction now represents the only strategy with immediate effect to slow global warming. Cutting global methane emissions by 40% by 2030 would limit the increase in temperatures by 0.3°C. A decisive short-term gain.

Methane mainly comes from leaks in oil and gas infrastructure, landfills, rice fields and intensive livestock farming. Technical solutions exist: detection and sealing of leaks, elimination of flaring, biogas recovery, improved waste management, or even changes in animal feed.

According to a report published in Science and co-authored by Simon Dietz (LSE), methane reduction would generate net economic benefits estimated at $1 trillion per year. This strategy would also avoid critical shifts such as the collapse of the Amazon or the disruption of the Asian monsoons.

However, despite the signing of Global Methane Pledge by more than 150 countries, emissions continue to increase, particularly in China, Russia, and India. Bill Hare insists: “ Reducing methane is the most powerful weapon in the short term. But strong political will is needed to overcome the influence of fossil industries “.

COP30: the decisive test of global political will in the face of global warming

In Belém, where COP30 is taking place, States are faced with a clear requirement: to implement what they have already promised. If the commitments made at COP28 were applied now, the global temperature at the end of the century could be reduced by 0.9°C.

Currently, emissions trajectories are leading the world towards warming of 2.6°C. By applying these three measures, the projections would drop to 1.7°C. This improvement would symbolize the most significant since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. But this prospect will only be achieved if the promises become concrete policies, accompanied by financing and verification mechanisms.

The political dimension is central. Bill Hare asks the key question: “ Will governments have the courage to resist pressure from fossil lobbies? » The phasing out of coal, gas and oil remains unpopular in many exporting countries. The lack of financial support also prevents countries in the South from respecting their own commitments.

Discussions in Belém also focus on the creation of a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. a promised roadmap, but never detailed since COP28. For Niklas Höhne, “ these three measures would trigger a change in the energy system. They form the heart of the strategy to move away from fossil fuels “. COP30 therefore represents a turning point. The decisions that are made there — or postponed — will determine the credibility of global climate trajectories for the decade to come.