Canadian Study Suggests Asteroid Apophis Could Impact Earth in 2029

Article published initially on September 04, 2024

Apophis, the most threatening asteroid since we look towards space

There is no doubt that one of the most dangerous asteroids that the earth has ever encountered has not only brushed against it. This happened 65 million years ago and following the impact of the meteorite, the dinosaurs disappeared forever from the surface of our planet.

But since then, the planet and the species that inhabit it have changed. So much so that we can now go into space and predict the arrival of this kind of threats, years in advance. If Apophis will only come close to us in 2029 during his visit, he remains, to date, the most threatening asteroid that we will come across.

It is based on the Torino Impact Hazard Scalean evaluation scale of a danger that can represent an asteroid. It goes from 0 (no risk) to 10 (a collision which leads to a global climatic disaster and which threatens the whole human civilization).

On this scale, Apophis is located at 4. This corresponds to “A close meeting that deserves the attention of astronomers, with a probability of collision of 1% or more, capable of devastating the region. ” Can we read on the website of Center of Near Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) of NASA.

The asteroid could crash on earth if …

In 2021, astronomical studies on the trajectory of Apophis concluded that the probability of an impact with our planet was zero and that the risk of a collision should not appear for a century.

However, this takes into account the basic trajectory of the asteroid. What would happen if the latter met a smaller body which would have him deviate from his planned path? There would be chances that Apophis, instead of brushing against us, rushes straight over us.

And the asteroid between 335 and 375 meters in diameter discovered in 2004, would not need to meet a very large rock on its way so that its trajectory will go on us. Indeed, according to a study by the Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert, Apophis could deviate from his trajectory, and head towards the earth directly, if he collided with an asteroid of 3.4 meters.

However, it is very unlikely that it will happen. Indeed, the space is immense and the more the bodies moving there are small, the lower the probabilities of impact. So according to Paul Wiegert “The overall probability that a small impact leads to Apophis in a collision with the earth is less than one in 2 billion. ” Can we read in the study.

It is certainly very little, but it is not zero.

Ramses, the mission of the ESA which will accompany the god of chaos

It is within the framework of the area of ​​space security that the European Space Agency (ESA) has developed the mission Rapid Apophis Mission Fo Space Safety (Ramses). This will consist in the accompaniment of the asteroid during its overflight of the earth in April 2029.

The ESA space vehicle which will be launched in 2028 should join Apophis in February 2029. On this occasion, the instruments present on the European ship will learn more about the asteroid behavior when it is more than more subject to the severity of our planet.

Apophis should make its passage at only 32,000 km above sea level, it is about 4,000 km less than the geostationary orbit of many satellites. If the sky is cleared, 2 billion people should be able to observe it according to ESA estimates in their presentation sheet of the Ramses mission.

So go to 2029 for a close meeting, but not too much, from the Apophis asteroid, the god of chaos.

Source: Iflscience