In the immensity of the cosmos, the earth is regularly close to asteroids, these vestiges of the solar system whose trajectories are scrutinized with increasing precision. Among them, the asteroid 2024 YR4 particularly draws the attention of astronomers: discovered late, it saw its probability of impact with our planet climbing in the space of a few days. This change, although subtle, raises questions about the evolution of its trajectory and the uncertainties that still surround its future.
With an estimated diameter between 40 and 100 meters, it does not belong to the category of asteroids capable of generating a global catastrophe like that which caused the extinction of dinosaurs 66 million years ago. However, its size remains sufficient to cause considerable damage if it were hitting an inhabited area. The scientific interest it arouses is not based solely on its dimensions, but especially on its trajectory and the evolution of its probability of impact with the earth.
From his identification, the initial calculations indicated an in 83 chance that he hits our planet in 2032, or about 1.6%. This figure, although low, has placed 2024 YR4 under close surveillance. In a few weeks, the data was updated and this probability was re -evaluated to 1.9%, before reaching today 2.3% according to the independent, a threshold never observed for an asteroid of this type. This change reflects a better accuracy of the calculations made from new observations, but also a slight modification of its orbit, which suggests a scenario where it could actually collide with the earth.
A probability increasing, but a risk still low?
The figures put forward by NASA and ESA do not guarantee an impact. They assess the trajectory in real time. In astronomy, these probabilities are constantly changing. Many factors influence trajectory, such as the severity of planets and other celestial bodies.
The 2.3% probability announced today indicate that an in 44 chance exists for an impact in eight years. This rate, although higher than the first estimates, remains low compared to other threats studied by astronomers. In 2004, the asteroid Apophis had aroused similar concerns. But after several years of observations, its risk of impact was dismissed.
Scientists recall that these probabilities will evolve with new data. The more the asteroid approach, the more precise the calculations. These adjustments will make it possible to better assess the real danger and to know if it will border or avoid the land.
What would be the scenarios in the event of an impact?
If the asteroid 2024 YR4 actually came to collide with the earth, the consequences would depend on several factors, in particular its speed, its angle of entry into the atmosphere and especially on the place where it would crash. Current calculations suggest that the impact could occur in a large area from South America to Asia, via Africa.
The most likely hypothesis is that the asteroid falls into the sea, given that more than 70% of the earth's surface is covered with water. In this case, the impact would generate an underwater shock wave and could cause localized tsunamis. However, the magnitude of these waves would largely depend on the depth of the ocean at the impact point and the input angle of the asteroid.
If 2024 YR4 crashed on an uninhabited region, such as a desert or dense forest, the explosion that would result in considerable energy, comparable to that of a large -scale nuclear explosion. The Toungouska event in 1908, where an asteroid about 50 meters in diameter shaved more than 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest, remains one of the best examples of such a scenario like the Cnews Raple.
In the event that it strikes a densely populated area, the damage is colossal. An explosion could destroy an entire city and its effects would be felt over several hundred kilometers. The shock wave and the fires triggered by the impact would cause significant human and material losses, but it would not be an extinction event on a planetary scale.
How does the scientific community prepare the response?
International space agencies take the threat posed by potentially dangerous asteroids very seriously. The researchers have already set up several initiatives to monitor, catalog and possibly divert celestial objects likely to collide with the earth.
One of the most ambitious projects in planetary defense is the Dart mission of NASA, which demonstrated in 2022 that it was possible to modify the orbit of an asteroid by sending it a high -speed impactor. Although experienced, this technology could one day allow it to deviate from objects similar to 2024 YR4
The European Space Agency also develops the HERA project. Its purpose is to analyze the effectiveness of the missions and improve deviation techniques. Other strategies are under study. One of them is to use lasers to heat the surface of an asteroid. This heat would cause a slight push. Over several years, this would be enough to modify its trajectory significantly.
For the moment, experts consider that no immediate intervention is necessary. They will only act if the risk of impact increases. 2024 YR4 therefore remains under close surveillance. Astronomers are continuing their observations. Their objective is to refine the calculation of its orbit and to assess possible measures in the event of a proven threat.
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