Arctic Warming: The Planned Eradication of Seals Has Already Started

The sea ice does not wait. Each year, it melts a little earlier, a little faster. And with it, the vital landmarks of many species disappear, including Arctic seals. These marine mammals, long adapted to an icy and stable world, suddenly find themselves taken by surprise. While climate models were already struggling to keep up, these animals simply no longer have the time.

Melting faster than expected

The term “Arctic amplification” takes on its full meaning today. Since 1979, the Arctic has been warming almost four times faster than the rest of the planet, a study published in Communications Earth & Environment found. Some areas of the Barents Sea are even experiencing local warming rates up to seven times the global average. This phenomenon far exceeds the projections of the most advanced climate models, highlighting their persistent underestimation.

The ice bears the marks of disruption. They become finer, fragment sooner and cover less surface area. This upheaval directly weakens the species that depend on the sea ice to survive. In seals, each life phase is based on stable ice. However, this stability is gradually crumbling. In 2025, the International Union for Conservation of Nature had to reclassify three species. The hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) is now in danger, while the bearded man (Erignathus barbatus) and that of Greenland (Pagophilus groenlandicus) are considered near threatened.

Arctic seals, taken by surprise by the climate

The impacts are not theoretical. They result in losses of entire litters, unusual movements and increased vulnerability among young seals. Biologist Kit Kovacs, specialist in marine mammals and member of the IUCN expert group, points out that the collapse in the survival rate of young people is now recurrent. When the ice breaks too soon, hatchlings become homeless, exposed to the cold, drowning or predation.

This observation is echoed in empirical data collected over several decades. A study led by Duke University, published in PLOS ONE, showed a direct correlation between the decrease in ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the increase in strandings of young seals on the coasts of the North Atlantic. Between 1991 and 2010, more than 3,000 seals were found weakened or dead. The vast majority of them were young of the year, unable to orient themselves or eat properly.

The seals most affected are those that rely most heavily on ice for reproduction. The harp seal, for example, gives birth to its pups on patches of floating ice floe. In the event of premature melting, mothers have no choice but to abandon their offspring. Even more mobile seals, such as adult males, do not escape this upheaval, forced to migrate further and draw on their reserves.

Adapt or disappear: the impossible dilemma

If some observers hoped that the genetic diversity of seals could promote rapid adaptation to their new environment, the most recent data tempers this optimism. According to a study relayed by Smithsonian Magazine, harp seals certainly present high genetic diversity, which suggests good potential for resilience. But this is not enough to compensate for the dizzying pace of the change underway.

Warming leaves little room for natural evolution. On the scale of one or two generations, it is illusory to imagine that behavioral or physiological adaptations can emerge in time. Even medium-term projections envisage the complete disappearance of traditional calving areas by 2050, as NOAA Fisheries points out. This not only condemns seals to an uncertain future, but calls into question the entire Arctic food chain.

Because these animals are not isolated victims. They feed polar bears, support the subsistence economies of indigenous communities and help regulate fish and shellfish populations. Their disappearance would have profound repercussions, well beyond the ice floes.