Arctic Ocean: The First Day Without Sea Ice May Be Closer Than Expected

“The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030”. Here is the title of a recent study published on December 3, 2024 in the journal Nature communications. Please note, we are not talking about pack ice here, but about sea ice, that which is located on the surface of the oceans at the North Pole and the South Pole.

Unless, of course, the temperature is way too high. And the consequence of this would be, in part, the disappearance of sea ice on the surface of the Arctic Ocean. “A worrying step for the planet”, as described by Céline Heuzé, climatologist at the University of Gothenburg (Sweden), and Alexandra Jahn, climatologist at the University of Colorado Boulder (USA), could occur in around twenty years.

However, some models show that the first day without sea ice could occur much earlier, in three years, in 2027. To be even less optimistic about the situation in the Arctic, simulations have even shown that this day fateful could, on average, occur in the 2030s, therefore within the next decade.

Finally, the most optimistic models have shown that this stage may not be reached before the end of the 21st century.

What do we mean by disappearing sea ice?

Will we have, from 2027 in the worst case, a vast blue expanse without ice on its surface on the edge of the ice shelf?

The answer is no. Indeed, for scientists, the first day without sea ice will be considered as such when the overall surface of sea ice in the Arctic does not exceed one million square kilometers. Thus, the Arctic Ocean will not take on a completely blue coat. However, it will have lost too many layers of ice for us to consider that there really are any.

What is the consequence of such a disappearance?

According to climatologist Alexandra Jahn, co-author of the study, “The first day without sea ice in the Arctic will not radically change things” she explained to ScienceDaily.

So is everything okay?

Still no. Indeed, even if the first day without sea ice will not have any consequences as such, it will mean that “we have fundamentally changed one of the features of the natural environment of the Arctic Ocean, which is covered in sea ice and snow throughout the year, due to greenhouse gas emissions” explained the researcher.

Worse still, if the situation continues to deteriorate, we could reach a dramatic point of no return. Indeed, sea ice, because of its white color and the fact that it covers a large part of the Arctic Ocean, reflects part of the light and therefore the heat of the Sun into space. Except that if it disappears, the blue of the Ocean, much darker, will absorb this light and therefore this heat with it. This would therefore lead to a warming of the Arctic Ocean and later other oceans, seas, rivers, etc.

The increasingly warm water will eventually cause the ice to melt, which would also cause the sea levels to rise. So, even if “The first day without sea ice in the Arctic will not radically change things”, we will have to ensure that these days do not turn into weeks, months or years…

To counter this, Alexandra Jahn is clear, “any reduction in emissions would help preserve sea ice”. All that's left to do is. Otherwise…

Source : ScienceDaily